Introduction
This page shows a set of state of Georgia results from running the DOE-NREL Scenario Planner models that are part of the Web-based State and Local Energy Planning (SLOPE) application. For details on the models see the Scenario Planner methodology document.
The charts explore four different scenarios, which are documented below. The results of the scenarios were downloaded as csv files, read into R, and graphed using the ggplot package. A full Georgia csv dataset with the detailed results is available for download here.
Scenario 1: Reference Case
This scenario evaluates the effects of business-as-usual projections for the evolution of electricity supply and energy demand sectors. The electricity generation mix evolves over time based on existing policies and default market and technology assumptions. End-use electrification, energy efficiency, and demand-side flexibility measures are assumed to grow modestly over time, consistent with current adoption and participation rates.
Scenario 2: Widespread Electrification
This scenario evaluates the effects of widespread electrification in buildings and transportation with a business-as-usual projection for the evolution of electricity supply. The electricity generation mix evolves over time based on existing policies and default market and technology assumptions, but it is designed to accommodate widespread electrification across multiple sectors, at levels that could result from a combination of technology advancements, policy support, and/or consumer enthusiasm for electric technologies. For example, 84% of light-duty cars and trucks are plug-in electric vehicles, and electric technologies serve nearly all major buildings services in all U.S. regions by 2050. Rates for customer participation in demand-side flexibility programs and adoption of energy conservation measures are assumed to remain at current levels.
Scenario 3: Widespread Electrification & Enhanced Demand-Side Flexibility
This scenario evaluates the effects of widespread electrification and increasing participation in demand-side flexibility programs within buildings and transportation, combined with a business-as-usual projection for the evolution of electricity supply. The electricity generation mix evolves over time based on existing policies and default market and technology assumptions, but it is designed to accommodate widespread electrification that could result from a combination of technology advancements, policy support, and/or consumer enthusiasm for electric technologies. The electrified loads are assumed to be highly flexible, consistent with an expansion of the most successful demand response programs into all sectors and regions of the United States. This enhanced demand-side flexibility represents an increase in consumers’ willingness to give utilities limited control over the timing of electricity consumption in exchange for sufficient financial incentives.
Scenario 4: 95% Grid Decarbonization by 2050 & Widespread Electrification & Enhanced Demand-Side Flexibility
This scenario evaluates the effects of a steady transition to a decarbonized electricity supply, widespread electrification in buildings and transportation, and increased participation in demand-side flexibility programs. The electricity generation mix is capped to follow a linear reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the present through 2050, when it achieves 95% decarbonization. The decarbonized electricity supply is designed to accommodate widespread electrification, but growing participation in demand-side flexibility programs lessens the cumulative capacity expansion of electricity generation and transmission assets.
For interactive versions of any plots below, click on the plot.
